In May 2020, when Tod Muller threw a leadership challenge to Simon Bridges, I had no doubts that he would roll Simon, but I gave him only a few months till the election 2020 results night.
Muller became the leader of the National Party in a presidential style clutching to his MAGA hat and Clinton badge. After running light on policy matters, his first policy announcement was a disappointment. Nothing much after that while he remained rudderless.
The COVID-19 data leak came as a bolt out of the blue sinking the old stalwart Michelle Boag. This leak smacking of a trick straight out of the dirty politics textbook, took its toll on Todd Muller, who resigned as National Party leader before proceeding to take medical leave.
In the blood bath that followed Muller’s departure, the central character from the dirty politics saga, Judith Collins finally became the leader of the National Party whilst many National MPs started bidding farewell to their political careers. Her leadership pitch can be found here and her dig at author Nicky Hager here.
Gerry Brownlee of “black fella” fame and who “without thought breached airline and airline security rules by entering the gate lounge through a door usually used for exit only” is now the deputy leader of the National party.
In the backdrop of the historical build-up as mentioned in the paragraph above, it is hard to believe this this duo is capable of putting a dent on the shining armour of Jacinda Ardern when the elections are just two months away. It would be an achievement if both Judith Collins and Gerry Brownlee survive as leaders after the elections in September.
On the other hand, smaller parties like ACT New Zealand and New Zealand First are directly in the firing line as Judith Collins’ persona casts a dark shadow over both these small parties. Segments of people who like Winston Peters (New Zealand First) or ACT Party are equally impressed by Judith Collins.
While one may like to tell ACT New Zealand “don’t count your chickens”, New Zealand First is getting a proverbial aircraft carrier in its support. Brexit campaigners Arron Banks and Andy Wigmore are bringing “mischief, mayhem and guerrilla warfare” to New Zealand elections in support of Winston Peters.
This changes everything. People are ready to believe anything due to confirmation bias. And social media has the capacity to provide plenty of sheeple fodder. This “guerrilla warfare” could actually hit where it really hurts. It has the potential of weakening the National Party more in the New Zealand context rather than New Zealand Labour.
At the same time, as people in other parts of the globe embarrassed enough are already waiting for their leaders to get ousted at the next elections, there is a possibility of a Brexit style campaign being totally rejected in New Zealand. And why not? It will be a good opportunity to see if the Nuclear-free New Zealand spirit is still alive and kicking. Under the MMP system, people in New Zealand are now smart enough to vote strategically.
Faultline Report 